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nation’s survival is closely tied to its birth rate, but the relationship is complex, involving not just the number of births but also the survival rates of children and a minimum fertility rate to avoid decline. While global fertility is dropping, it’s crucial to look beyond raw birth numbers and consider infant and child mortality rates to determine if a population is self-sustaining. A rate of about 2.12.1 births per woman is considered the replacement level for most developed countries, but this varies significantly based on mortality and other factors. 

Fertility and population sustainability 

• Replacement-level fertility: This is the rate needed to keep a population stable, generally around 2.12.1 births per woman in countries with low mortality.
• Higher in low-income countries: In countries with high child mortality, the replacement level can be as high as 3.53.5to compensate for expected deaths.
• Minimum fertility threshold: Some research suggests that to reliably avoid extinction due to random demographic events, a fertility rate of 2.72.7 births per woman may be needed, which is significantly higher than current levels in many countries. 

Factors influencing survival 

• Child and infant mortality: A country can have a high birth rate, but if child mortality is also high, the population may still be unsustainable. For example, Niger had a high total fertility rate, but a significant number of children were not expected to survive to adulthood.
• Health and nutrition: Access to quality health care, skilled birth attendants, postnatal care, and proper nutrition can drastically lower mortality rates.
• Effective vs. total fertility: The “effective fertility rate” accounts for child mortality, giving a clearer picture of long-term sustainability than the total fertility rate alone.
• Demographic and economic factors: High fertility rates are often found in countries with lower Human Development Index scores (life expectancy, education, and income), and this inverse relationship is sometimes called the “fertility-income paradox“. 

Global trends 

• Declining fertility: The global fertility rate has been declining for decades and is projected to fall below the replacement level around 2050.
• Regional variation: While fertility rates are falling almost everywhere, they remain significantly higher in some regions like Sub-Saharan Africa compared to others like East Asia.
• Future population shifts: By 2100, 97% of countries are projected to have fertility rates below the replacement level needed to sustain their population size.